Analyst breaks down the results of Tuesday's key primaries

NPR's Michel Martin sizes up the outcome of the key Tuesday primary races with Cook Political Report elections analyst Dave Wasserman.

Transcript

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Dave Wasserman also stayed up to watch the results last night. He's a senior editor and elections analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Good morning, Dave. Thanks for joining us.

DAVE WASSERMAN: Good morning, Michel. Thanks for having me.

MARTIN: OK, so it took a week, but the runoff for governor of California is set. Republican Steve Hilton will face Democrat Xavier Becerra. The Democrat Tom Steyer is out. This, after spending more than $200 million on his own campaign. Now, the primary was nonpartisan, but the choice in November will still be between a Democrat and a Republican. Dave, does this say something to you about voter sentiment in California today?

WASSERMAN: Well, the primary wasn't quite nonpartisan. Candidates' affiliations were on the ballot. And the question was whether we'd have a Democrat and Republican or two Republicans and - or two Democrats. But as it stands, there's no chance that Steve Hilton, a Trump-endorsed Republican, will win in a state as blue as California in a year as blue as 2026.

MARTIN: You said in a - California is a blue state, but an election as blue as this one is. What did you mean by that?

WASSERMAN: This is a very favorable year for Democrats because President Trump's approval rating, according to our tracker, is just south of 40%. And so his approval, particularly among Hispanic voters, white voters without college degrees, we've seen a big drop-off in his support from where he was in 2024. Therefore, California is just not in play, especially for a Republican who's endorsed by the president.

MARTIN: OK, let's turn to the main Senate race now, where Democrat Graham Platner was declared the winner when only 8% of precincts were reporting results. And this, despite the fact that Platner has been dogged by allegations of past misconduct toward women, something he has addressed head-on, including in his victory speech. Let me play a short clip.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

GRAHAM PLATNER: If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change.

MARTIN: Dave, where do you put his chances against the longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins?

WASSERMAN: Platner's chances are still roughly a toss-up. And we don't have a lot of polling data to draw on since these most recent revelations about Platner's treatment of women. However, we do know that he needs to win a robust share of women, particularly older women, to defeat Susan Collins because in her last election six years ago, she was able to run more than 10 points ahead of Donald Trump on the ballot among that demographic, and that helped her hold on in a blue-leaning state.

Graham Platner has demonstrated support among the blue-collar population in Maine that powered him to a lead over Governor Janet Mills. Nonetheless, she still carried about 20% of Democratic primary votes, and that illustrates that Platner does have some work to do to consolidate his own coalition and convince skeptics in his own party who may be uncomfortable about some of his past indiscretions to defy those and vote against Collins anyway.

MARTIN: Let's go to South Carolina now, where President Trump backed one of the winning candidates in the Republican primary for governor, and that was Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette. There's still going to be a runoff, though. Does this tell us something about the power of Trump's endorsement?

WASSERMAN: Well, we've seen, particularly in state races, there's a limit to the influence of the president's endorsement. His preferred candidate in Iowa, Congressman Randy Feenstra, lost his primary just earlier this month, and Pam Evette, even though she had the president's endorsement, didn't really break a third of the vote, and we'll be heading to a runoff against Attorney General Alan Wilson. And in Evette's case, her opponents have criticized her for living outside the state for most of her adult life. She only moved to South Carolina in the mid-aughts. And so she still has the advantage in this runoff and the general election, but it's going to be competitive.

MARTIN: Before we let you go, let's have a word about Nevada's governors race. It's a toss-up, we are hearing. Here's the state's Democratic attorney general, Aaron Ford, speaking after the polls closed.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

AARON FORD: And guess what? We got a governor here that won't stand up to Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED PEOPLE: That's right.

FORD: That's a real problem, don't you think?

MARTIN: He's referring to Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, who he's going to face in November. Does Ford have a chance?

WASSERMAN: Well, Nevada's economy has faced unique challenges, especially during COVID and its aftermath, and it's still reeling from the effect of inflation and tariffs and job losses. And President Trump is unpopular in Nevada, just a couple of years after flipping the state. So Aaron Ford, the Democratic attorney general, has a good chance based on voters' concerns about the cost of housing and other goods, even though Lombardo remains more popular in the state than Donald Trump.

MARTIN: That's Dave Wasserman. He analyzes elections for the Cook Political Report. Dave, thank you so much.

WASSERMAN: Thanks, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.