4 states hold primaries Tuesday. How is Trump's influence affecting these races?

NPR's Michel Martin speaks with Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections about Tuesday's primaries in four states and how President Trump could affect the odds for his party.

Transcript

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Four states are holding their primaries tomorrow. Here to give us a rundown on some key races to watch and to analyze how President Trump is helping or hurting the GOP in these races is Nathan Gonzales. He's the editor and publisher of Inside Elections. That's a nonpartisan campaign analysis publication. He was kind enough to stop by our studios. Thanks so much.

NATHAN GONZALES: Good morning.

MARTIN: So, Nathan, the president once again is claiming election fraud. As we heard on "Meet The Press," he's pointing the finger at California as votes from last Tuesday's primary are still being counted.

(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "MEET THE PRESS")

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: It's four days, and they aren't even close...

KRISTEN WELKER: That's how they...

TRUMP: ...To coming up with a...

WELKER: That's how they count the votes in California.

TRUMP: You know why they're doing that? Because they're cheating on the election.

WELKER: There's - what - do you have evidence...

TRUMP: They're...

WELKER: ...To support that?

TRUMP: All I have to do is look.

MARTIN: OK. I think a lot of us had flashbacks with that, but does this - I don't know. How do you read that? Is that maybe a preview of a narrative for the midterms if things don't go well for the GOP?

GONZALES: Well, maybe it's a preview, and it's a recap of where we've been on the messaging. I mean, President Trump has been complaining about elections even since the 2016 election that he won. He was complaining about California and complaining how the - he didn't - he felt like he was being disenfranchised because he didn't win the popular vote. But we have to - first of all, we have to remember that a vote cast by mail before or - counts the same as a vote cast on Election Day. And a vote counted on election night casts - counts the same as a vote counted after Election Day.

I think this is something that - the base Republicans are behind President Trump in almost everything. But they also realize that there are more important issues, such as the economy. And I think the risk for the president is that he continues to make news. And he continues to be the focus of attention at a time when he's incredibly unpopular nationwide - about a 39% job approval rating. And that is not good for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.

MARTIN: The president also asked for patience on the Iran war. He defended this antiweaponization fund. You've also noted, as have others, just how strongly the president's core supporters stick with him, no matter what. But is this - are these messages landing first with his supporters and then with anybody else?

GONZALES: Well, in order to be successful, in order for Republicans to hold the majorities, holding the Republican base isn't enough, right? You need a - an inspired base that turns out to vote, but you also have to have independent voters. And right now the situation is you have an excited Democratic base against Republicans and the president. You have independent voters flipping from Republicans to Democrats based on the economy and the direction of the country. And then there's the question of, what do those Trump-first Republicans do in the midterms? Do they turn out to vote when he is not on the ballot? Republicans haven't been successful over the last year and a half.

MARTIN: So let's dig into a couple of specific races. In Maine, the presumptive Democratic Senate candidate, Graham Platner, is dealing with yet more allegations about his personal conduct, this time after three ex-girlfriends painted a picture of him as a - kind of a volatile character. They talked to The New York Times about this. Do we have a sense of how Democratic voters in Maine are feeling about this as they head to the polls?

GONZALES: Conflicted. I mean, they don't like this. But they also - Maine is a must-win state to get to the majorities - Republican Susan Collins running for reelection in a Democratic state. They - Platner's campaign was so successful that he was able to push out the sitting governor, Janet Mills, and now there's more things coming out as the primary comes on Tuesday. I think this comes down to focus. If voters are focused on, do you like Graham Platner's texts or Reddit posts or his relationships with women? If you - if you're focused on that, Susan Collins is going to win. It's going to be tough for Democrats to win the majority. But if you - if voters are focused on President Trump and saying, do you like the direction of the country? Do you like what President Trump is doing? - Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee, can still win this race.

MARTIN: And let's go to South Carolina, where the president has endorsed the lieutenant governor, Pamela Evette, for governor over other loyal Republicans in the state. Does Trump's endorsement matter here? Does - you think this is enough to take her over?

GONZALES: It still does matter. I mean, the president - his record was dinged a little bit last week in Iowa when Randy Feenstra - the congressman - fell short. But that - I wouldn't even blame that on President Trump. It looks like this race is going to go to a runoff. You have the lieutenant governor who has Trump's support. You also have two members of Congress - Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, the state attorney general. I expect this to go to a runoff. And I expect President Trump's influence in the primary to continue - whatever Republican primaries, where he is still the most important and most powerful person in the Republican Party.

MARTIN: So overall, what have the primaries told us thus far about what voters in each party seem to want in a...

GONZALES: Well...

MARTIN: ...Candidate?

GONZALES: President - on the Republican side, it's fairly easy. Whoever President Trump, you know, endorses - that is still key. You want that. The Democratic side - I think Democrats are focused on winning. I think that they're still wrestling with that larger conversation about 2028, who they nominate for president. I don't think Democratic primary voters have wrestled with that, but right now it's about winning. It's about taking over the majorities and trying to have either a House or a Senate that stands up to the president, you know, in two years.

MARTIN: That is Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. Nathan, thank you so much.

GONZALES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.